Aena despeja la incertidumbre sobre las tasas, pero los analistas alertan de riesgos

Aena has addressed the uncertainty surrounding its rates, but analysts warn of potential risks. The company is expected to raise its rates above market expectations, moving away from the cut proposed by the Commission Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC). Despite this, analysts acknowledge certain challenges that Aena must remain vigilant about.

Following the government's approval of the Dora III plan, which outlines rates and investments for Aena between 2027 and 2031, shares in the company fell by 0.32% to 24.92 euros per share on Wednesday afternoon, following a rise of 1.05% the previous day. The stock has a market capitalization of 37.380 million euros.

Experts from Bank of America (BofA) have upgraded Aena's valuation to 30.7 euros and increased their growth forecast for the airline, citing the significant increase in traffic expected from the Dora III plan. BofA notes that the projected traffic increase of 1.8% annually is moderately conservative, as Aena has already exceeded expectations in traffic growth over the past two planning periods (2017-2021 and 2022-2026).

The higher rate increase announced by the Council of Ministers (0.33% annually until 2031, including inflation adjustments) is also greater than what analysts had anticipated, leading to an expected increase in earnings of at least 1.65% accumulated over the period, compared to a scenario of stagnation.