Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.00 amid rising inflation, Treasury yields

Silver prices dipped to nearly $63.00 per troy ounce on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of declines. This downward trend could accelerate due to soaring oil prices, which are fueling inflation concerns and prompting the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. As the Fed's potential rate hike probability surged above 92%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets responded positively, suggesting a tightening monetary environment.

The inflationary pressure is mounting, as evidenced by the August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising and core inflation hitting its highest level in four months. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed closer to the 5% mark, indicating heightened inflation and fiscal concerns. This has put additional downward pressure on non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Analysts at TD Securities note that trend-following funds currently hold a modest long position in Silver, leaving room for adjustment as the metal's price fluctuates. Systematic flows could vary depending on whether the metal experiences a sharp sell-off, modest decline, or remains relatively stable.

Silver, a precious metal often used as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, has seen its price movements influenced by various factors. These include geopolitical events, global recession fears, and the performance of the US Dollar. A weaker Dollar typically benefits Silver, while a stronger Dollar keeps its price in check.

Beyond its role as a hedge, Silver is used extensively in industries such as electronics, solar energy, and jewelry. Demands from these sectors, particularly in China, India, and the US, can impact Silver's price. The Gold/Silver ratio, which compares the value of Silver to Gold, can also offer insights into the relative valuation of the two metals. A high ratio might signal that Silver is undervalued compared to Gold, while a low ratio could indicate the opposite.