Euro remains depressed below mid-1.1500s vs bullish USD as focus remains on FOMC

During the recent Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair experienced a dip below the mid-1.1500 mark, near a one-month low. This decline is primarily due to the anticipation of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. The US Dollar (USD) maintains a bullish outlook as investors focus on this event.

Factors such as rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, increased concerns over inflation due to higher energy prices, and escalating tensions between the US and Iran all contribute to the pressure on the EUR/USD pair. ING analyst Padhraic Garvey warns that the Fed is closely monitoring the yield curve, with the 10-year US Treasury yield nearing 5%.

Despite this, he believes inflation expectations might require some adjustment from the Fed to mitigate these concerns. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait on Monday, further adding to geopolitical risks. This situation, coupled with continued clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, supports oil prices and the US Dollar.

Traders may wait for the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday before making new bullish bets on the USD. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance could offer support to the Euro, potentially limiting further losses for the EUR/USD pair. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading below both the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

To extend the decline, sellers would need to break the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1533, followed by the 61.8% retracement near 1.1491. Significant support is seen at the 78.6% level at 1.1430 and the prior swing low near 1.1353. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 100-day SMA around 1.1555, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.1575.

The 23.6% retracement at 1.1628 and the 200-day SMA close to 1.1633 represent a strong resistance barrier.