Forecasting the NFL GOAT QB with Artificial Intelligence: The 2026 Update

Last year, an article was published that employed an AI system to investigate and forecast the likelihood of Patrick Mahomes surpassing Tom Brady as the greatest NFL quarterback. The prediction at the time gave Mahomes a 30% chance of eventually surpassing Brady. This follow-up article builds upon that research, focusing on the changes made after the 2025-2026 season and refreshing the same ten career metrics.

Mahomes concluded the 2025 NFL season with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 89.6 passer rating in 14 games. His total career statistics now stand at 35,939 regular-season passing yards and 267 touchdowns. However, the championship and postseason baselines did not progress, as he remained with three Super Bowl wins, three Super Bowl MVPs, a 17-4 playoff record, and 46 playoff touchdown passes.

Despite the team's overall performance, Kansas City finished the season with a 6-11 record, scoring 362 points while allowing 328. The +/-34 differential complicates any claim that the team had declined permanently. There is a possibility of another poor year, but the win-loss record alone may not accurately represent the team's decline. A rebound in close games is plausible, but not guaranteed.

Injury was another significant factor this season. Mahomes suffered a left knee injury during a December 14 game against the Chargers, requiring surgery shortly after. Although the team played without him, it's uncertain whether the injury directly contributed to the team's performance decline. Mahomes was reported as cleared to start against Denver for the upcoming season, but it's unclear if his mobility and longevity have been restored.

The Chiefs' roster has also changed, with Eric Bieniemy returning as offensive coordinator, Travis Kelce rejoining the team, and the addition of Kenneth Walker. These changes could potentially improve the team's competitiveness, but the long-term impact remains unclear. The updated career projections for Mahomes take into account the various scenarios and their respective weights, but the overall assessment remains a judgment call based on available evidence.