Fiscal economy to remain firm despite execution risks – Databank Research

Databank Research anticipates that the country's fiscal economy will remain robust in 2026, despite the presence of execution risks. The research firm has adjusted its year-end baseline projection for the country's fiscal deficit (based on commitment) from 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product to 2.2% (equivalent to GH¢34 billion). This revision is attributed to the sovereign's underspend of GH¢35.1 billion in the first half of 2026 and an overall spending cap of GH¢302 billion, which compensates for a revenue shortfall of GH¢1.3 billion.

The research group notes that this disciplined stance represents a significant departure from past instances of overspending, underscoring the effectiveness of the sovereign's "Commitment Authorisation" framework in curbing institutional waste.

The research maintains a primary surplus forecast of 1.5% of GDP for the end of 2026, driven by interest savings amounting to GH¢6.9 billion and a stable inflation environment. The transition to the non-financing IMF Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and a substantial 65% reduction in gold-reserve implementation costs—dropping from 14.5% to 5.0% under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the Ministry of Finance and GoldBod—further bolster fiscal discipline.

These factors, combined with the government's already disbursed GH¢7.1 billion to power producers, fortify the nation's ability to maintain energy sector stability throughout the fiscal year, barring any unforeseen global systemic shocks.

Additionally, Databank Research cites the Jubilee drilling campaign as a positive development, as production has surged to 95,000 barrels of oil per day, buoyed by favorable global prices. The research firm believes that the government's well-positioned stance to surpass its GHS30 billion Sinking Fund target by the end of the year is reinforced by robust Treasury bill demand and export proceeds stemming from oil surpluses.