Dangote Refinery names competition that may adversely impact its performance

Dangote Refinery has cautioned that competition from existing and planned refineries could impact its performance, according to its IPO prospectus. The company accounts for roughly 58% of Nigeria's total installed refining capacity and potentially more than 90% of operational capacity, as of June 30, 2026. However, Dangote Refinery anticipates that additional refining capacity could intensify competition in domestic and international markets.

The prospectus highlights three NNPC legacy refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna as potential competitors if they resume commercial operations. The Nigerian government aims to rehabilitate these facilities, though they have a history of poor performance and frequent rehabilitation attempts. Furthermore, the prospectus warns that new projects in the region could increase the supply of refined petroleum products, potentially lowering market share, product prices, or refining margins.

Dangote Refinery faces competition not only from domestic sources but also from major export-oriented refineries in the Middle East and Asia, especially as a significant portion of its production is exported. The company's IPO, valued at N2.15 trillion, is set to take place on October 13, with listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) expected in November.

In addition to domestic competition, Dangote Refinery is exploring refining opportunities outside Nigeria, including a proposed project in Kenya.