British Pound: Fragile labour market clouds BoE hikes - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that rising Oil prices have sharply lifted UK rate expectations, with markets now discounting four Bank of England hikes by mid-2027 versus just over one in June.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister suggests that the fragile UK labour market and rising oil prices are casting doubt on the Bank of England’s aggressive interest rate hike plans, which now include four hikes by mid-2027. Pfister notes that the oil price has surged to 110 USD per barrel following the Houthis' advance in Yemen, and this correlation between oil prices and interest rate expectations has become more significant.
While the Bank of England is expected to tighten monetary policy, Pfister cautions that the labour market's weakness and upcoming budget discussions make the hike more challenging to implement. Consequently, Pfister remains skeptical about the market's expectations of rate hikes, recommending investors to explore other markets instead, as this outlook is not promising for the British Pound.
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