Brazil Election Polls Now Disagree by Nine Points on the Same Race
Five polling firms surveyed Brazil in the same four days and produced five different races. The gap is in the voters each one leaves out. The post Brazil Election Polls Now Disagree by Nine Points on the Same Race appeared first on The Rio Times .
Five Brazilian polling firms released conflicting results in one week, with their estimates of the presidential race disagreeing by nine points. This discrepancy is not due to disagreements over candidates Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, but rather each firm's approach to handling voters who do not provide answers. The four national surveys conducted between September 9 and 13 had a margin of error of around two points each.
Datafolha's findings, released slightly earlier, placed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 44%, sitting in the middle of the range. However, the gap arises from the voters these firms fail to account for. Nexus excluded 7% of voters, CNT/MDA left out 12.7%, Indexa excluded 15%, and Quaest left out 18%. This variation in unaccounted voters creates an 11-point spread in the reported margins.
The polling methods themselves do not account for this discrepancy; for instance, telephone polls and doorstep interviews both yielded different results. Each firm uses a distinct approach when dealing with undecided voters, which affects their reported numbers. Despite the controversy, the consensus is that the race is close, with a run-off scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures half the votes.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
