What could El Nino mean for the UAE and Gulf?

The El Nino weather phenomenon, anticipated to be one of the strongest on record, may have significant implications for the UAE and the broader Gulf region. The main anticipated effect is an increase in rainfall, particularly from October to November and again from March to May. This could lead to severe bouts of heavy rain and an elevated risk of flooding, although this is not guaranteed.

Dr Diana Francis, an associate professor and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Laboratory at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, explained that El Nino generally shifts the Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula towards wetter conditions. Dr Andries-Jan de Vries of the Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland added that intense downpours could become more likely, especially in combination with dry soils and the varied topography of the region.

The UAE's National Centre of Meteorology recently stated that the country is expected to avoid the worst impacts of El Nino, although more rain may be experienced. After severe flooding occurred in late March 2024, the authorities have been investing heavily in improving drainage systems to better cope with heavy rains.

El Nino, a natural phenomenon characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, can influence global climate patterns. Its effects on the UAE and Gulf region are expected to be felt from mid-autumn onward, primarily through shifts in rainfall patterns rather than temperature changes.