What could El Nino mean for the UAE and Gulf?

The El Nino weather phenomenon, projected to be among the strongest ever recorded, is anticipated to raise temperatures in numerous regions globally. However, its impact on the Gulf region is likely to manifest as increased precipitation, potentially from October to November and again from March to May. Severe bouts of rain could even lead to flooding, although this outcome is not assured. Experts predict these extreme weather conditions could persist until 2027, as reported by the World Meteorological Organisation.

Dr Diana Francis, an associate professor at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, explained that El Nino typically shifts the Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula towards wetter conditions due to enhanced moisture transport. Dr Andries-Jan de Vries, from the University of Lausanne, added that intense downpours, particularly in areas with dry soils and mountainous terrain, could become more frequent, leading to potential flooding.

The UAE's National Centre of Meteorology recently indicated that the country may avoid the most severe aspects of the El Nino phenomenon. However, the nation might experience heightened rainfall. In March 2024, severe flooding struck parts of the UAE, shortly after the country experienced its most extreme rainfall in over two years during what was deemed the fifth-strongest El Nino on record. A study in Nature Scientific Reports suggested that El Nino may have played a role in the heavy April 2024 rainfall over the region.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is a natural phenomenon characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to broader climate changes worldwide. Its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooler temperatures in the same region. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Nino and La Niña events typically endure for nine months to a year and occur irregularly, roughly every two to seven years.

The current El Nino is forecasted to be exceptionally robust and is expected to last into 2027, as declared by the World Meteorological Organisation.

Recent research published in Weather and Climate Dynamics explored three mechanisms through which El Nino influences weather in the Gulf region. Firstly, warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific often correspond to cooler temperatures and reduced convection around Indonesia and the West Pacific, altering atmospheric moisture transport towards the region.

Secondly, an eastward flow of high and low-pressure systems from the Pacific to the Middle East, combined with a low-pressure system over the Middle East, creates conditions more conducive to precipitation. Lastly, the subtropical jet stream over North Africa and the Middle East can be slightly shifted south during El Nino conditions, facilitating the entry of mid-latitude storms into the region.

While El Nino conditions generally increase the likelihood of wetter conditions in the Gulf, they do not guarantee it. Dr Zouhair Lachkar, a senior research scientist at NYU Abu Dhabi, noted that rainfall in the region fluctuates greatly from year to year, and El Nino is not always correlated with increased rainfall.