Talks vs escalation: How Iran’s internal power struggle is shaping the war

Iran's internal power struggle is significantly impacting its current conflict with the United States. In July, Iranian forces attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but President Masoud Pezeshkian was unaware of the attack, nor did the Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief. Even Iran's Supreme National Security Council remained uninformed about the incident.

The attack, which set a Qatari LNG tanker ablaze and damaged two other ships, is believed to have been orchestrated by a hardline faction within the Iranian leadership. This faction allegedly acted independently, undermining efforts by more pragmatic officials to end hostilities with the United States and alleviate domestic economic struggles. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's newly appointed supreme leader, has largely been absent from public view during this period of turmoil.

The internal power struggle escalated into one of Iran's most volatile political confrontations in memory. Senior officials exchanged heated arguments, accused each other of treason, and even threatened to resign. This chaotic situation led to a shake-up of the Supreme National Security Council, with veteran politician and former Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei appointed to mediate between competing factions.

The attack on the commercial vessels is believed to have been ordered by an influential cleric and former intelligence chief, Hossein Taeb, who had opposed the peace agreement with Washington. Taeb was later appointed by Khamenei to lead the Basij militia, responsible for suppressing domestic unrest.

A key question remains: who is truly in charge of Iran during this political crisis? Ayatollah Khamenei has not been seen in public since becoming supreme leader in March, and his involvement in government decisions is a subject of intense speculation and uncertainty. Pezeshkian's communication with Khamenei is also the subject of debate, with officials questioning whether he has truly been in contact with the supreme leader.