Sweden’s general election on a knife-edge as far-right trails by narrow margin

Sweden's national election results on Monday showed a narrow lead for the centre-left opposition over the right-wing government. The Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, are projected to secure 176 seats in the 349-member Riksdag, based on votes from 6,195 out of 6,312 election districts. The right-wing governing bloc, headed by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, is expected to win 173 seats.

Counting of ballots continues, with the final result anticipated by Wednesday at the earliest. National broadcaster SVT projects the outcome as 175 versus 174 seats.

While the election is unlikely to alter Sweden's pro-western and pro-Ukraine stance, it could determine whether Mr Kristersson's hard-right immigration policies will continue or intensify. The winner may not be known for several days, pending the counting of overseas ballots. In a pre-election pledge, Mr Kristersson agreed to include the far-right Sweden Democrats in his government to form a majority-right coalition.

Many right-wing voters see a win as an endorsement of measures that have reduced gang violence and immigration, but some Swedes are uneasy about the far-right party's representation.

Critics argue that Mr Kristersson's immigration policies, which include incentives and penalties to pressure migrants to conform to Swedish cultural norms or leave the country, undermine civil liberties. Mr Kristersson hopes to still form a majority among the eight political groups that secured seats in the Riksdag, emphasizing his party's economic policies. However, the Social Democrats have lost ground, and their budget plans may face challenges due to differing views on economic issues within the bloc.

The Sweden Democrats' electoral success would be welcomed by Europe's rising far-right parties, buoyed by the Alternative for Germany's victory in a recent German state election. The party hopes to gain seats in upcoming European elections, with the National Rally's campaign for the French presidency next year being a potential major target.

In Rinkeby, near Stockholm, the Sweden Democrats' leader, Jimmie Akesson, commented that the suburb, which hosts one of the country's largest Swedish-Somali populations, "doesn't look like Sweden anymore."