Democrats’ chances of gaining control of Congress at US midterms depend on Iran war
Recent polling shows if the disruption caused by the Trump administration’s war with Iran continues, Democrats will likely gain control of Congress.
In Nate Silver's forecast, Democrats have more than a 50% chance of gaining control of the US Senate and a 86% chance of securing the House in the upcoming midterm elections on November 3. With Donald Trump's net approval rating close to -20 and Republicans likely to lose both chambers of Congress if the Iran war disruption persists, Democrat's chances improve. However, if the disruption eases and petrol prices fall, Republicans might retain control of the Senate.
Trump's net approval is currently -19.7, with 58.2% disapproving and 38.5% approving. His ratings are worse than any president since Harry Truman, with the closest being Trump's first term at -13.1. Silver's analysis shows Trump's net approval for immigration, trade, the economy, and inflation to be -12.2, -26.1, -30.8, and -46.4 respectively.
On the Iran war, 55.7% of Americans oppose it while 35.6% support it, giving it a net support of -20.1. Democrats need at least a four-seat gain and a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate, while they need a 6-7 point margin in the House.
Despite the economic improvements in August, the US employment-population ratio remains low compared to other countries. Inflation has risen slightly, but real wages have increased. The S&P stock market index has also risen, adding to the favorable economic conditions for Democrats. However, two key factors that could derail their chances are a significant economic improvement for most Americans and a systematic error in which Republicans overperform the polls.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
