Die Spekulanten werden die Entschlossenheit von US-Finanzminister Scott Bessent testen

US-Finanzminister Scott Bessent has challenged investors this week with bold words, daring them to wager against his market interventions. The outcome could be unpleasant. Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, made his mark by uttering "Whatever it takes" in 2012 to stem the European debt crisis. This verbal intervention was credible as the European Central Bank theoretically can print unlimited money.

This week, US Finance Minister Scott Bessent also made a "Whatever it takes" statement, using the phrase "I am the house now," playing on the saying "The house always wins." Bessent explicitly challenged the speculators to test his resolve and assured them that unlike normal investors, he had insider information and thus had the upper hand.

This year, Bessent has intervened in the financial markets multiple times, with two primary goals in mind: preventing further depreciation of the yen and capping the returns of US Treasury bonds. However, there's a strong connection, as Bessent explained. If Japan must defend its yen alone, it is forced to sell US Treasury bonds, causing their yields to rise and forcing the US to pay more for debt servicing.

In essence, Bessent primarily aimed to press down on the cost of US debt. His verbal bravado regarding the yen's exchange rate has worked well so far. Yet, the yields of 10-year Treasury bonds have still risen this week, sticking to the psychologically important 5-percent mark. This increase is due to several factors, including the renewed escalation in the Iran war, high inflation numbers, and oil prices.

Bessent himself contributed to this by buying fewer Treasury bonds than Wall Street expected. Speculators are already closely watching Bessent. They will test his resolve in the coming weeks. The first critical moment might come on September 16th, when the next interest rate decision is due. Markets currently see an 80-percent probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

If this does not happen, investors might conclude that the Fed is backing down from President Donald Trump, who does not want higher interest rates. Bessent will undoubtedly regret his bold words soon. He is not Super-Scott, and the investors know it. The coming weeks could be turbulent. However, I do not believe a crash will occur.

If I had to choose a scenario, it would be one where the American economy runs hot with high interest rates and persistent inflation above the 2-percent target range. This is not good for stocks, at least in the short term. The yield for 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to climb despite Bessent's interventions and is close to the 5-percent mark.

This makes it difficult for the US to manage its debt. President Donald Trump is serving his second term, which has far-reaching domestic and foreign policy implications.