La inflación en Estados Unidos se mantiene en el 3,4% en agosto y deja un camino incierto para la Reserva Federal

Recent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $6 billion bond operation was insufficient to curb recent increases in borrowing costs, warn investors. Bessent's attempt to stabilize the $32 trillion US public debt market proved counterproductive. Investors argue the initial measure by the Secretary of the Treasury was too timid to stem rising yields and have damaged his credibility.

The 10-year Treasury bond yield, a benchmark for trillions in assets worldwide, surged this week to its highest level in nearly three years and edged close to the 5% threshold considered concerning on Wall Street. The most recent borrowing cost increase occurred even after the Treasury launched a $6 billion bond buyback program, which Bessent expanded to combat what he described as a fever in the world's most important market.

The intervention has fueled fears that the US—global finance's pillar—is acting more like countries with poorer solvency. Ellen Zentner, a Morgan Stanley Wealth Management analyst and member of the Treasury's Debt Issuance Advisory Committee, stated that some of the measures adopted by the United States carry risks typical of emerging markets.

The Treasury's bond buyback operation, announced in August, surprised investors when it was revealed. It comes after an intervention to support the Japanese yen. The recent borrowing cost increase this week was driven by a sudden rise in oil prices, which spiked on Thursday as the conflict between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and anti-government protests backed by Tehran heightened the threat to supply from the region.

The 10-year Treasury bond yield hit a high of 4.97% during Friday's Asian session, while Brent crude traded at $107.70 a barrel, slightly below previous peaks above $109. President Donald Trump also signaled this week that his war with Iran and high energy prices could prolong beyond the November midterm elections. Rising energy prices due to the war with Iran and concerns over sovereign debt overload and overproduction by tech companies have pushed global yields higher.

Concern over US public finances, which surpassed the country's debt of $40 trillion last month, surged on Thursday after Trump promised a $5,000 payment to all American adults if the Republicans won the midterm elections, a cost exceeding $1 billion. Expectations that AI would drive strong economic growth also fueled the surge. However, fund managers said the 0.18 percentage point increase in the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of the week showed that Bessent's buyback operation was too weak to contain borrowing costs.

The Treasury announced on Wednesday that it would buy up to $6 billion in debt during its first buyback, compared to the at least $4 billion promised in mid-August when it announced the measure. However, some banks and investors expected a more substantial operation. The Treasury announced on Thursday that it would only accept offers from investors worth $5.2 billion for the sale of bonds.

Vincent Mortier, head of investments at Amundi, said the reduced volume of the intervention means it does not solve the general problem of rising US yields and added that Bessent's signal to markets via the bond buyback could be counterproductive, as it demonstrates some nervousness on the part of the US government. Asked about the doubts of investors regarding the buyback operation, a senior Treasury official hinted at an exceptionally strong secondary offering of 30-year debt that was also held on Thursday.

The official said primary operators—large banks responsible for absorbing unsold supply—had purchased the lowest amount recorded for this type of bond, while the ratio of supply to demand, an indicator of demand, was the third highest in the last five years. The bond buyback is part of a more active strategy by the former hedge fund manager who holds the Treasury Secretary position, including an intervention to support the yen against the euro at the end of July that surprised the European Central Bank.

The market's disappointment with the buyback program stemmed from the Treasury seeming to under-spend almost frugally, which is incompatible with a "whatever it takes" approach. Mark Cabana, United States interest rates strategy manager at Bank of America, said some investors felt Bessent's intervention, while surprising, was insufficient to stem the bullish trend in yields driven by concerns over the growing US deficit and latent inflation.