Defiant Iran seeks to weaken Trump ahead of midterms

Iran is increasing confrontational actions against the United States in a bid to heighten the cost of the conflict for President Donald Trump as the US midterm elections approach less than two months away. Following the war's start on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes that claimed the life of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has intensified efforts, even considering a return to full-scale fighting, rather than attempting to de-escalate and pursue diplomacy.

US President Trump, under pressure to end the war ahead of the Nov 3 midterm elections, stated on Wednesday that he believes the conflict will conclude immediately after the vote because Iran cannot sustain the strain. However, even as Iran's leadership remains unclear with Khamenei's successor and son Mojtaba yet to make a public appearance, the regime has bolstered its traditional stance of confrontation with the US.

Far from permitting the resumption of unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial energy corridor that typically transports about a fifth of the globe's oil and liquefied natural gas, Iran has introduced and subsequently broadened a new prohibited zone in the region. Iran appears confident that it is prevailing in the war and that the US is losing, viewing this as an opportune moment to exploit US weaknesses and vulnerabilities to reshape the regional order to its advantage.

Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, asserts that Iran is converting the escalation into enhanced leverage. The Revolutionary Guards reported targeting 10 vessels attempting to cross the prohibited Hormuz area, as well as striking a US military base in Jordan in response to US forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers the day prior.

Analysts suggest Iran's goal is to politically weaken Trump ahead of the midterms, potentially causing his Republican Party to lose control of the House of Representatives and even the Senate, thus reducing the president to a lame duck status for the remaining two years of his term.