Vor der Landtagswahl: Umfrage: AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern drei Punkte vor SPD

In the lead-up to the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, a ZDF poll shows the AfD at 37 percent, just three points ahead of the SPD led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. The CDU follows with seven percent, marking the party's worst result in a state election since the Federal Republic's founding. This could lead to another heavy defeat for the CDU, after their poor performance in the recent election in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD's lead over the Social Democrats is significantly smaller than it was a few months ago, compared to other survey institutes. This confirms the picture other opinion researchers have been painting in recent weeks. However, the AfD recently managed to widen its lead slightly. According to the ZDF figures, the Greens are currently in third place with 10 percent, followed by the Greens at five percent and the BSW at four percent.

To be elected to the state parliament, a party must secure at least five percent of the vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Schwesig is planning to mobilize against the AfD and identifies herself as "The Woman against Blue". In a direct comparison with the AfD's top candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, she performs significantly better when asked who people would prefer to be Minister-President or Minister-President.

61 percent chose Schwesig, while 28 percent preferred Holm. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveyed 1,053 eligible voters between Monday and Thursday for the ZDF poll. The margin of error is plus/minus three percentage points when the share is 40 percent, and plus/minus two points when it is 10 percent. The poll is deemed representative.

In the context of the polarized campaign, the CDU has recently slipped further behind. In the most recent Infratest dimap survey commissioned by ARD, the Christian Democrats fell from 8 to 7 percent compared to a September survey conducted by the institute, while the SPD gained one point to 33 percent. The AfD's share grew even further in the poll conducted by Insa for the "Nordkurier" between Monday and Wednesday, rising from 35 to 38 percent.

With the upcoming election in Saxony-Anhalt, opinion polls are always accompanied by uncertainties. Factors such as dwindling party ties and increasingly short-term decision-making make it challenging for survey researchers to weight the collected data. Essentially, polls reflect the public's opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts for the election outcome.