Vor der Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Umfrage zur Berlin-Wahl: Linke knapp vor CDU

In the days leading up to Berlin's upcoming municipal elections on September 20th, a ZDF poll reveals that the Left party is currently leading the race, narrowly ahead of the CDU. The Left's star candidate, Elif Eralp, garners 23 percent of the vote, just two percentage points behind the Christian Democrats with their front-runner Stefan Evers at 21 percent.

The AfD trails with 17 percent support, followed closely by the Greens at 16 percent. The Social Democrats trail behind with 10 percent. However, these figures were collected from Monday to Thursday, potentially before the revelation of investigations against SPD frontrunner Steffen Krach on Wednesday. The BSW (Berliner Wahlbeobachtungsstelle) falls three percent shy of the five percent threshold.

The remaining parties collectively account for 10 percent, each falling below the three percent mark. With such a result, the incumbent red-green coalition would no longer hold a majority. Mathematically, a potential alliance could emerge between the Left, Greens, and SPD, or the CDU, Greens, and SPD. The research group Wahlen conducted the survey with 1,100 respondents, noting a margin of error of plus/minus three percent when the total percentage is 40 percent, and plus/minus two points when it's 10 percent.

The survey claims to be representative. A tight race has been evident for months in Berlin's election polls, with the three to four strongest parties consistently close in comparison. Since at least April, the ZDF poll shows the Left just ahead of the CDU, with the AfD at 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. Another Infratest-dimap survey for ARD, released on Thursday, has the Left at 21 percent, two points ahead of the CDU at 20 percent, while the AfD sits at 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent.

The Insa Institute surveyed a week earlier, however, showing the CDU narrowly ahead of the Left (19 percent) and the AfD (18 percent), with the Greens and SPD both at 15 percent. Asked which of the three top candidates from CDU, Left, and Greens voters would prefer to see in the Red City Hall, the results are also split. CDU figurehead Stefan Evers comes in at 25 percent in the ZDF poll, while the Left's Elif Eralp receives 23 percent.

Only nine percent favor Green candidate Werner Graf. The incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew his CDU candidacy around two months ago, following a controversy over inaccurate claims about his crisis management during the major power outage in January.