Pakistan warns Iran to rein in Houthis as Riyadh strikes back

On 9 September, Iran announced it had launched attacks on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz following the United States' sinking of five Iranian oil tankers. The strikes marked the most significant assaults on shipping by either side since their war commenced six months ago. Among the casualties, at least one tanker crew member was confirmed dead and another went missing.

Initial reactions saw oil prices surge. Brent crude, the global benchmark, broke through US$100 a barrel for the first time since July, after surging over 3% the previous day. At the time of writing, it was trading at US$101.50 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate was priced at US$96.69. The ripple effects extended beyond crude prices.

U.S. retail diesel prices hit a record high of over US$5.94 a gallon. During his pre-election convention visit to Dallas, U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that Iran's actions were aimed at swaying November's midterm elections, which could determine whether his Republican Party retains control of Congress. Trump suggested oil prices driven by the Iran war would not decline before the vote but would drop immediately after.

He also posited that Iran would eventually yield to the war's consequences, as it could no longer endure the impact. Trump declared that the conflict had surpassed what he initially anticipated, entering its seventh month. The enduring struggle has caused shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that previously carried nearly one-fifth of the world's petroleum supply before the conflict.

This disruption has intensified pressure on the Republican administration over rising fuel prices, with some party members indicating the war could emerge as a crucial issue for voters. Iran also reported firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan. Jordan claimed it intercepted 18 missiles, while two others landed in uninhabited areas without causing damage.

U.S. officials confirmed all American personnel were secure. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps signaled its intention to escalate its response if additional attacks were launched against Iran. Furthermore, the organization announced a forthcoming expansion of its maritime exclusion zone, which might extend as far as Chabahar, located near Iran's border with Pakistan.

The Wall Street Journal cited senior White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, privately warning Trump that the conflict could persist until the end of his term in January 2029. Escalating conflicts have emerged between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi group, adding another dimension to the Middle East energy supply threat.

The U.S. military reported destroying five Iranian oil tankers overnight and showcased video footage of the vessels ablaze before sinking. U.S. Central Command emphasized that the strikes followed two IRGC ballistic missile attacks on U.S. Navy vessels, with no reported American injuries or fatalities. The U.S. administration has implemented a new policy of targeting Iranian oil tankers in response to any threat to U.S. warships, having attacked ten Iranian tankers over the past week.

Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters during a visit to Colombia, reiterated that Iran was persistently attempting to target U.S. warships. He stated, "Every time they do that or try to do that, they're going to lose a tanker." Iran claimed it had targeted two U.S. vessels and eight oil tankers in retaliation for the U.S. attacks. Recent weeks have seen the U.S. administration expressing confidence in its ability to successfully guide tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, efforts to gradually restore normal shipping have faltered following the resurgence of hostilities this month. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at consultancy Rystad Energy, noted that oil flows through the strait had plummeted to approximately 2 million barrels a day, a stark contrast to 8-9 million barrels a day in the weeks preceding the conflict's resurgence on 30 August.