Mobility: Europe must move from targets to the conditions for delivering them

In 2025, electric vehicles make up just 1.9 percent of new heavy-duty vehicles sold in the European Union, compared to 28 percent in China, according to the International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT). This stark contrast, while not due to technological limitations, highlights a deeper issue: Europe lacks the necessary economic and political conditions to achieve its sustainability goals.

China, on the other hand, possesses the planning and implementation capacity to bypass a slower process of coalition-building among stakeholders. Europe, being liberal and democratic, cannot impose the transition through decree, and it should not attempt to. Instead, it must facilitate the transition by aligning interests, rules, and risks.

Key questions arise: who should bear the risk of scaling up electrification, and who should invest first? Who will guarantee demand? The answer lies in creating a credible path to sustainable, sovereign, desirable, and viable mobility. The direction is clear, but critical decisions lie ahead, and Europe must transform its ambitious policies into actionable conditions for change.

Firstly, the heavy-duty vehicle sector presents a challenge. Electric heavy-duty vehicles are technically feasible, and the regulatory framework exists. However, economic concerns such as higher purchase prices, uncertain residual values, and the need for charging infrastructure present significant barriers. Distributing these risks more effectively could help overcome them.

Solutions like battery leasing, residual-value guarantees, shared charging infrastructure, and securing volumes through contracts are already in place. Public action becomes crucial where the market cannot act quickly enough, particularly on infrastructure connections and ensuring interoperability. Confidence in the direction of travel is essential, not through blanket restrictions, but by making the trajectory credible and supporting those willing to take the initial risks.

Secondly, the affordable small car market is another area of concern. Europe has a rich history of producing iconic small cars, but modern European electric cars are still beyond the reach of many households due to high prices. Europe began with premium electric models and SUVs, hoping costs would fall over time. However, affordable electric small cars produced in Asia are now entering the European market.

The European Commission has proposed a dedicated category for compact electric vehicles with incentives for production in Europe. This is a step forward, but more needs to be done to ensure industrial sovereignty, purchasing power, and environmental benefits. The Pop Car project, developed with industry leaders and experts, aims to create an affordable, efficient, and desirable European electric car, addressing weight, battery capacity, and total cost of ownership.

The question remains: what electric car can European households afford, and where will it be produced? The choice is whether to make the entry-level segment strategic again or allow it to develop elsewhere.

Lastly, artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping mobility systems. AI directs vehicle routes, manages traffic flows, and allocates resources like time, public space, freight capacity, and energy. The AI Act, implemented since August 2, 2026, imposes transparency obligations on certain AI systems. While necessary, this does not dictate what AI should optimize.

AI executes instructions, not decisions. Should it prioritize speed, efficiency, or environmental performance? Should it focus on operator costs or overall accessibility? These priorities are collective choices written into software and shape our mobility systems, just as physical infrastructure does. Regulators play a decisive role in setting priorities, ensuring that AI systems deployed in mobility demonstrate net benefits in terms of carbon emissions, user costs, and accessibility, rather than solely focusing on time saved.