Oil prices approach $100 as Middle East conflict flares, Goldman sees potential upside to $120

Oil prices surged past the $100 per barrel mark on Tuesday, marking the first time in two months as a new wave of tensions in the Middle East erupted. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) climbed approximately 2.3% to trade near $98.50 per barrel, briefly surpassing $99 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) increased 2.7% to reach $94 per barrel.

The immediate pressure on the oil market stemmed from reports that Saudi Arabia had suspended operations at energy facilities across its southern region following attacks by the Houthi militant group. These attacks targeted Saudi oil shipments out of the Red Sea, prompting the United States and Iran to intensify their war. The US had previously struck three Iranian crude oil tankers, causing permanent damages to two and total destruction of the third. Despite no US casualties, the renewed hostilities raised concerns over reduced supply.

The US and Iran's war entered its sixth month amid a global supply deficit, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its price targets for Brent and WTI futures on Monday. The bank now anticipates Brent and WTI futures trading at $85 and $80 per barrel in December, up from previous forecasts of $5 lower. Goldman Sachs strategists believe that prices could soar to $120 per barrel for Brent if Gulf supply remains disrupted due to intensified attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

However, experts like Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, assert that tensions have not materially escalated since the recent strikes. He believes that even as tit-for-tat attacks persist, both parties have refrained from escalating significantly. Meanwhile, US efforts like the "Operation Economic Onslaught" to target foreign financing of the Iranian regime have not yet seen major actions against China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil.

The energy market remains in a state of uncertainty, with the market taking into account the recent events and volatility.