Oil nears $100 as Middle East war flares

Reports circulating from Yemen suggest a potential pathway to reshape the Middle East region. Following the February US and Israeli strikes on Iran, some speculated that this could result in a weakened or even collapsed Iranian regime, sparking significant regional changes. However, Iran has thus far resisted these efforts and maintained its grip on power. Much like Saddam Hussein's regime in the 1990s, Iran may continue to thrive despite these challenges.

If the Iranian regime does not collapse, this does not necessarily mean stagnation in the region. In fact, a weakened Iran might find it harder to sustain its influence through proxy forces. The Houthis, for instance, have emerged as a key Iranian proxy in Yemen, standing as one of the last remaining entities under Iranian control. This is largely because they have not faced the same level of pressure or combat that other Iranian-backed groups have.

Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian proxies have experienced significant setbacks. Hezbollah's rocket arsenal has been severely weakened, while Hamas has lost a substantial portion of Gaza and many of its fighters. Both groups, while still dangerous, have regressed to their levels of strength observed between 2002 and 2006. Additionally, Israel's defense capabilities have vastly improved since that time, further diminishing the potency of these proxies.

The territory controlled by Hamas and Hezbollah is now considerably smaller compared to the vast expanse of Iran. Iran's influence is estimated at around 150 times greater than that of Lebanon. This underscores the reality that, despite their continued expansion efforts, the reach of Iranian proxies in the region is dwindling.

Meanwhile, Shiite militias in Iraq present another significant pro-Iranian axis in the Middle East. With approximately 100,000 fighters, these militias are divided into various brigades under the Popular Mobilization Forces. While they are backed by the Iraqi government, there is pressure on them from the US to rein in their activities.

Some militias may comply with these demands and place their arms under state control, while others are resisting, demanding the US withdrawal from Iraq by September 30 before considering any changes to their weaponry.

Turning our attention to Yemen, the Houthis have been particularly weakened as they are cut off from Iranian funding, supplies, and expertise. This could lead to a diminished capability for the Houthis. The terrain favors the Houthis, as they have historically held onto their positions in highlands. However, Yemeni forces are now launching a multi-front offensive, aiming to pressure the Houthis from multiple directions.

This strategy, as outlined by Michael Knights, an expert on Yemen, could prove effective in dislodging the Houthis from their strongholds.

In conclusion, the weakening of Iran's proxies, particularly the Houthis, could indeed reshape the Middle East. However, it is too early to determine whether this offensive will succeed in its objectives. Regardless, it is clear that the landscape in the region has shifted significantly, and Iran's once-feared influence is now waning.