Apple will quickly become a dominant player in folding phones – Counterpoint

On September 9, Apple unveiled its highly anticipated "iPhone Ultra" at the Steve Jobs Theater. This is the first foldable iPhone from Apple, a product that the company has never released before. Analysts estimate the average selling price of the Ultra to be above $2,550, roughly Rs 2.25 lakh, with some models potentially costing $3,000 or more, almost double the price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max at $1,199.

The Ultra's high price is primarily due to a memory shortage that has driven up component costs by over 300% in the past year. Specifically, smartphone DRAM prices have surged from $42 to $181 for 16GB units. Major memory manufacturers, including SK Hynix and Micron, are prioritizing memory for AI servers, a more profitable market. As a result, phone manufacturers are competing for the remaining supply.

Apple is launching only its top-tier iPhones this September, with the iPhone Ultra, iPhone 18 Pro, and Pro Max making their debut. The company is also postponing the launch of the standard iPhone 18 and a refreshed Air to the first quarter of 2027. This strategy allows Apple to absorb the cost shock from memory prices and maintain its profit margins.

The Ultra is expected to feature a 7.8-inch inner display and a 5.5-inch cover screen, with a TrueDepth front camera that functions whether the phone is folded or unfolded. It will have 12GB of RAM and a large 5,500mAh battery, the largest ever in an Apple phone. Apple's hinge and crease technology are said to be designed to minimize visible seams and improve durability.

However, the Ultra's production is currently limited to a few hundred units per day, with an expected total run of around 10 million units over the next three to five months.

Despite Apple's experience in the smartphone market, a recent survey of U.S. adults found that 75% are not interested in buying a foldable iPhone, even if it were priced lower. Those who are interested would be willing to pay an average of $781, which is significantly less than the price of the base iPhone 17. Memory-driven price increases are discouraging some potential customers from upgrading their devices.