Por qué los mercados observan impasibles el radical giro político en Europa

In 2027, nine general elections across EU countries, including Spain, France, Italy and Greece, are anticipated, with a conservative victory in Germany's Sajonia-Anhalt state elections prompting calm market reactions. The DAX 40 index fell marginally while debt costs barely moved and the euro rose slightly against the dollar. German state governments hold significant powers in areas like education, influencing regulatory interpretation and implementation, but crucial decisions often originate from the federal executive led by Friedrich Merz.

While Deutsche Bank and ING warn of political fragmentation risks if the conservative government fails to replicate its poor performance, Nomura highlights the potential for fiscal prudence from right-wing parties like Giorgia Meloni in Italy. Goldman Sachs predicts political risk from upcoming elections in nations like Spain, France, Italy and Greece, though the data suggests recent deficits have generally contracted by just 0.25% of GDP in EU countries during election years.

While France remains a potential issue due to Marine Le Pen's presidency and political fragmentation potentially hindering fiscal adjustments, entities like Goldman and Barclays advise favoring the German over the French market.