Oil extends gains after US and Iran strike ships

Oil prices continued to rise on Monday following a series of tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and other regions, raising worries about a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Brent crude futures increased by 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 66 cents, or 0.72%, to $92.14 per barrel. Over the past week, Brent crude prices increased by 7.8%, and WTI prices rose by nearly 10%.

In recent attacks, US forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, near Iran's crucial oil export hub. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it had struck three oil tankers in unauthorized routes within the Strait of Hormuz, along with three additional US vessels in other areas. This latest round of attacks has been described as a "major escalation in the maritime conflict" by the maritime intelligence firm Marisks.

Commercial tankers now face deliberate use as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, which has significantly blurred the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping, according to the firm. The average number of commodity ships transit the Strait of Hormuz has been at an average of 10 per day in the past 10 days, the lowest level since May, as reported by analytics firm Kpler.

Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, announced in state media that a restricted zone will be announced outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. In a recent statement, OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy unchanged for October during their meeting on Sunday, as they require a new agreement on quotas before deciding on the next steps for output adjustments.

Experts predict that the ongoing standoff, marked by calculated military actions from both the US and Iran, is the most likely scenario, potentially delaying the recovery of full Middle East supply. According to ANZ analysts, a prolonged standoff is expected to continue through the rest of 2026, with exports staying constrained until the end of that year. A return to pre-war throughput levels is not anticipated until late Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027.