GDP growth ‘way down’ in markets’ pecking order of economic indicators: DSP Mutual Fund’s Sandeep Yadav

Sandeep Yadav, Head of Fixed Income at DSP Mutual Fund, discusses the importance of GDP growth in the financial markets. He asserts that GDP growth ranks "way down" in the market's pecking order of economic indicators, behind inflation, government finances, and geopolitics. Yadav notes that the 7.8% growth rate for April-June is "stale" and that markets are not reacting to the latest GDP data.

He expresses concerns about India's ability to attract foreign money, citing the difficulty the Reserve Bank of India may face when Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits have to be repaid in 2029. Yadav also highlights that the government's fiscal deficit is higher than growth due to increased subsidies, and that the debt market prioritizes geopolitical factors and oil prices over GDP growth.

He predicts that the first interest rate hike from the RBI may occur in February, rather than October or December, as the central bank has not given clear indications yet. Yadav remains optimistic but acknowledges the challenges India faces in attracting foreign inflows due to a short forward book of $200 billion and the redemption of FCNR(B) deposits.