Opec+ set to keep October oil output policy unchanged

Opec+ is set to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October, according to discussions between two sources familiar with the upcoming meeting, according to Reuters. The producer group must first agree on new quotas before determining its next output steps. The ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, diminishing Opec+'s control over prices and market share.

This is in contrast to previous instances where the group's supply decisions had a significant impact on the market. In August, Opec+ approved a production increase for September, concluding a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut initially agreed upon in 2023. Despite the production increases, the group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still falls short of its production targets due to the war.

Opec+ is still under a layer of production cuts, affecting most members until the end of 2026. The group needs to assess members' oil production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines, which will serve as the foundation for quotas. This analysis will probably take place later in 2026, leading Opec+ to suspend its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources previously informed Reuters.