Opec+ set to keep October oil output policy unchanged

Opec+ is expected to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October during a meeting on Sunday, according to two people familiar with the discussions reported by Reuters. The producer group requires consensus on new quotas before determining its subsequent output steps. The ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, diminishing Opec+'s ability to exert control over prices and market share.

In August, Opec+ approved a production increase for September, marking the completion of a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut initiated in 2023. Despite these production boosts, the group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, continues to fall short of its production targets due to the conflict.

Opec+ still maintains additional production cuts in place, affecting most of its 21-member countries until the end of 2026. Prior to deciding how to phase out these cuts and restore production to the market, the group needs to evaluate each member's oil production capacity to establish baselines for 2027, which will serve as the foundation for quotas.

This deliberation is anticipated to occur later in 2026, leading Opec+ to likely suspend its output increases for the fourth quarter, as earlier reported by Reuters.