Germany's far-right, pro-Russia party on brink of winning majority in key regional election

Germany's far-right nationalist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is on the verge of securing a majority in Saxony-Anhalt's parliamentary election held on September 6. Forecasts indicate the pro-Russian faction is close to achieving a political majority in the region. This potential victory would mark the first far-right state government in Germany since World War II and could pose significant challenges for Ukraine.

The latest projections show AfD leading with approximately 44.2% of the vote, a result that could yield an absolute majority in the state's 83-seat parliament. If successful, the party's leader, Ulrich Siegmund, would become the minister president of Saxony-Anhalt. While official results are pending, AfD is expected to gain a plurality of votes, granting them the authority to form a regional government and seat Siegmund in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of Germany's parliament.

Siegmund's election would be the first time the AfD secures representation in the Bundesrat, potentially enabling them to delay legislation and promote anti-Ukrainian policies on a national level. The AfD leader has promised to reduce support for Ukrainian refugees and strengthen educational ties with Russia. In a region with 39,000 Ukrainians, including 31,000 refugees, Siegmund has called for slashing funding and services, expelling migrants from Germany.

The AfD's control over Saxony-Anhalt also raises concerns about disrupted supply routes to Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reportedly developing contingency plans for alternative eastward routes for military equipment and even NATO troops in case of a Russian attack. The AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt may prompt other local parties to reconsider their stance on cooperating with the far right, an approach rooted in Germany's history with Nazism.

Although Saxony-Anhalt represents only 1.7 million voters (1.7% of Germany's population), the AfD's ambitions extend beyond the region. The nationalist party aims to unseat Chancellor Merz and reshape German politics. The AfD is also targeting electoral gains in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and a second-place finish in Berlin on September 20.

Even if the AfD fails to achieve these objectives, their success in Saxony-Anhalt suggests a growing acceptance of right-wing nationalism and pro-Russian sympathies in Germany. Germany's crucial ally in Ukraine, Berlin, provides the largest share of military aid and hosts the largest number of Ukrainian refugees in the EU, totaling around 1.3 million.

Recent opinion polls indicate a shift in German sentiment towards reducing some financial benefits for Ukrainians, and the current government has tightened its stance on draft-age Ukrainian men residing within its borders.