Eli Lilly’s $100B incretin opportunity: Is more upside coming?

Eli Lilly & Co is set to continue expanding within the rapidly growing obesity-drug industry, according to a research note from J.P. Morgan. The bank has increased its 2027 revenue forecast for the pharmaceutical company by 0.7% to $105.67 billion and raised its adjusted earnings-per-share projection by 1.1% to $50.99. Despite maintaining an Overweight rating and a price target of $1,400 by December 2026, J.P.

Morgan remains optimistic about the future of Lilly's medications, particularly its incretin portfolio, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, and the oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo.

J.P. Morgan anticipates that the combined sales of incretin drugs will rise to over $62 billion in 2026, $78 billion in 2027, and more than $100 billion by 2030, representing roughly 20% annualized growth through the end of the decade. The U.S. obesity market is expected to benefit from enhanced Medicare coverage and direct-to-consumer access, while international markets could also contribute to growth.

Lilly's products, especially Zepbound, are anticipated to secure a significant portion of new prescriptions as obesity treatment expands.

The brokerage firm also sees substantial potential in pipeline candidates retatrutide and eloralintide. Retatrutide, which may launch in late 2027, is expected to cater to a wide range of obese patients, while eloralintide could find applications in first-line treatment, patients who do not respond well to GLP-1 drugs, and weight-maintenance therapy.

Despite concerns about pricing pressure on GLP-1 drugs and the pace of Foundayo's U.S. rollout, J.P. Morgan believes Lilly's next-generation medicines could maintain a competitive advantage by raising efficacy and tolerability standards. Moreover, broader employer coverage could improve access as prices decline, as projected in the bank's financial model.