Taiwan-China war could have serious fallout for region, says ex-diplomat

Former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani warned during a fireside chat at the Penang Peace Dialogue in George Town, Malaysia, that an armed conflict between China and Taiwan could have severe consequences for Southeast Asia. Mahbubani, who previously served as a president of the United Nations Security Council, emphasized that if a war were to break out, the chances of US involvement would be very high.

The ex-diplomat cautioned that Southeast Asia should not naively believe that the region would remain unaffected by the conflict.

He stressed that a war between China and Taiwan would have negatively devastating consequences for the entire world and their region. Mahbubani noted that global economic growth would likely decrease due to the conflict, and Malaysia's economy would also suffer. He urged the international community to prevent a Sino-Taiwan war by not supporting conditions that could lead to Taiwan declaring independence, as this would trigger a war and potentially lead to a global conflict.

Mahbubani shared that he had previously warned Taiwanese leaders about the dangers of proxy wars spanning decades, citing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as an example. He advised Taiwan to understand and respect its red lines to avoid a similar fate to Ukraine. Mahbubani also emphasized that while a peaceful reunification with China was possible, Taiwan could still maintain autonomy and enjoy a good life under such an arrangement.

The diplomat highlighted that various creative diplomatic solutions could be explored to prevent a war, as the damage caused by such a conflict would adversely impact everyone. Earlier this month, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faced criticism for stating that Taiwan is part of China, a remark that drew support from Beijing but condemnation from Taiwan, which warned that his "one-sided support" for China could harm the confidence of Taiwanese businesses investing in Malaysia.

Anwar defended his stance, stating that Malaysia's one-China policy has remained unchanged since the era of former Prime Minister Abdul Razak Hussein and that Malaysia respects China's position on Taiwan and believes a peaceful approach is the best way forward.