Anthropic eyes mid-October IPO launch: sources

Anthropic, an advanced AI company, has postponed its planned Initial Public Offering (IPO), now anticipating a marketing launch for the offering in mid-October at the earliest, according to sources familiar with the situation. The company is expected to file its Initial Public Offering (IPO) prospectus later in September, rather than earlier as initially anticipated. The prospectus is a critical step that would advance the company into the final stages of its public offering.

The revised timeline may cause the company's IPO, which could potentially value Anthropic at approximately $2 trillion, to rank among the largest IPOs ever attempted. This listing would also spotlight the burgeoning AI industry in the public market. The delay in the IPO is not unprecedented as companies often adjust their plans in response to market conditions, regulatory reviews, and other preparations.

Anthropic is also anticipated to join a group of AI companies eyeing public listings around the same time. Potential IPOs from companies like OpenAI might coincide with Anthropic's listing. Notably, Elon Musk's SpaceX went public in June at a valuation of $1.77 trillion.

In addition to the IPO, Anthropic is in the process of finalizing a $15 billion revolving credit facility. The company aims to complete this facility before meetings with analysts, including those from the banks involved in the financing, to discuss the prospectus. Due to Anthropic's established status, analysts are already familiar with the company, resulting in a shorter gap between the facility completion and the prospectus filing, as compared to typical IPO processes.

Among the banks collaborating with Anthropic on the IPO are Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. The potential valuation of Anthropic is being evaluated not only on the company's current performance but also on its projected growth over the next few years. According to two sources familiar with Anthropic's financials, the company forecasts revenue of between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. This forecast significantly contrasts with Anthropic's $47 billion revenue run rate reported in May.

These future revenue estimates are being used by bankers and investors to calculate the company's enterprise value-to-revenue multiples, a common practice for rapidly growing software firms that have not yet reached a stable profit profile. The use of revenue projections two years in the future is uncommon, indicating Anthropic's rapid expansion and the difficulty in comparing this company to others with more mature profit profiles.

Anthropic's IPO preparations also occur amid improving relations with the Trump administration. The company had experienced months of tension with the administration over AI safety protocols and national defense boundaries. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently confirmed that the administration now trusts Anthropic, reversing earlier sentiments of significant conflict and pushing the company closer to executive favor.

This shift in the company's relationship with the US administration accompanies its preparations for a major transition in the markets, where investors will scrutinize its long-term revenue expectations, while the company's ties with the administration have evolved from months of discord towards a more cooperative stance.