A record-shattering El Niño is almost here. Here’s what that means for the world’s weather

Australia is preparing for the strongest El Niño on record, a potentially catastrophic weather event that could push the planet into dangerous territory. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that causes shifts in temperature and winds across the Pacific Ocean, leading to global weather changes. Historically, El Niños have been significant, but this one is forecasted to be the most intense ever recorded.

Scientists track El Niño activity using temperature data from the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator, though now they use a relative index that accounts for background warming due to climate change. This August, the relative index was 2.3°C above average, making it the hottest El Niño on record. Australia typically sees hotter and drier conditions during El Niño years, but the current one is expected to break all previous records.

The effects of this historic El Niño are already being felt worldwide. In Indonesia, the country is battling massive wildfires, which scientists attribute to the current El Niño. This strong El Niño is also reshaping cyclone patterns, with four active tropical cyclones currently observed in the Pacific, a rare occurrence.

While Australia is somewhat removed from the direct impacts, a record-breaking El Niño is expected to intensify as we move into spring. The Bureau of Meteorology predicts hotter temperatures and drier conditions across much of eastern and central Australia. However, previous strong El Niños have resulted in varying outcomes in Australia, from drought-like conditions to heavy rainfall.

The consequences of this record-breaking El Niño are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. As El Niño strengthens, the world will face more extreme weather events, particularly affecting vulnerable communities. Record-breaking El Niño may serve as a catalyst to address climate change by spurring governments to invest in research and mitigation efforts.