A record-shattering El Niño is almost here. Here’s what that means for the world’s weather
It threatens to compound the worst effects of climate change.
The world is bracing for a record-breaking El Niño event, according to the United Nations who have labeled our planet "in the danger zone" of extreme weather. El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that impacts temperature and wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, subsequently affecting weather patterns worldwide. Historically, we have experienced numerous strong El Niños, but this current one is notably stronger and developing more rapidly.
Scientists monitor El Niño activity using a relative index, which factors in background warming from climate change. This allows for a more accurate measurement of an El Niño's intensity in a warming climate. Currently, this index indicates that the El Niño is 2.3°C above average, surpassing previous records.
The unusual timing and intensity of this El Niño are significant. Typically, an El Niño peaks between November and January, but this one is already unusually warm at this early stage. This exceptional early onset, combined with the unusually high relative index, suggests that this El Niño will have global ramifications.
This record-breaking El Niño is already impacting weather patterns globally. It is contributing to record-breaking temperatures in 2027, exacerbating the impact of climate change. The El Niño is driving unprecedented wildfires in Indonesia, shaping cyclone formation in the Pacific, and bringing unusual dry conditions to Australia.
In Australia, an unusually dry spring and summer is expected, potentially increasing bushfire risk. However, the severity of bushfires cannot be solely attributed to this El Niño, as past El Niño years have led to both drought-like conditions and increased rainfall.
The intensifying El Niño will likely exacerbate the effects of climate change, compelling nations worldwide to confront more extreme weather. The most vulnerable communities are expected to be hardest hit, with nearly 50 million people at risk of acute hunger. Additionally, farmers worldwide will face unpredictable weather patterns, ranging from devastating floods in South America to severe drought in parts of Africa.
To mitigate the worst impacts, governments must invest in robust research to model and understand how regions will be affected by the strengthening El Niño. This is especially crucial for Australia, where a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects of climate change and a strong El Niño on local conditions is lacking. Ultimately, this record-breaking El Niño could serve as a catalyst to transition away from fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
