US $100bn Venezuela oil bet faces years-long wait

The US administration is investing $100 billion in Venezuela's oil industry, with the aim of boosting production from the world's largest proven oil reserves. However, experts warn that achieving this ambitious target will take many years, if not decades. The Orinoco Belt, where much of Venezuela's resource lies, contains extra-heavy crude and bitumen that requires expensive upgrading before it can be shipped and processed.

Only a limited number of refineries, mostly in the US, are capable of refining such crude. This bottleneck is the main hurdle to fast growth in Venezuela's oil output. While Chevron plans to double its Venezuelan output to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) over seven years with a $7 billion investment, turning the country's vast reserves into marketable barrels will require a significant period of time.

Estimates suggest that Venezuela could reach 3 million bpd by the end of the decade, but such projections are far more optimistic than those made by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Instead, production is more likely to reach this level in the middle of the next decade, with most of the gains coming from existing projects operated by international companies rather than new developments.