Tindakan Umno tak sama apa dilaung, kata penganalisis

Analysts contend that the Malaysian United Malays National Organisation (Umno) is not displaying the support it claims to have for Anwar Ibrahim. Speaking to FMT, James Chin of the University of Tasmania highlighted that Umno appears to be attempting to weaken the Prime Minister despite previously vouching for Anwar Ibrahim until the end of the parliamentary term.

Chin pointed out that Umno intensified its pressure on Anwar following the party's impressive victory in the PRN Johor, as well as the success it achieved in collaboration with the Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Negeri Sembilan. With the upcoming PRN Melaka, Chin suggests that the Umno leadership aims to leverage this momentum for the upcoming general election.

"They are applying pressure because they do not wish to lose momentum. Can Anwar yield? I believe it is premature to discuss this matter at present. Anwar is also forming a new coalition without Umno. I predict that the relationship between PH and BN will deteriorate further, while Umno will oscillate." Meanwhile, Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Academy observed that the pressure from BN to hold PRU16 earlier is a response to the challenges they face, including possible legal actions related to Tabung Haji and Felda.

"Pressure is felt on both sides," he said, adding that BN also wants to maintain the momentum from their victory. Azmi warned that such actions could cause greater instability within the federal government led by the PH administration, while emphasizing that BN still holds significant influence over other political parties in the Madani administration.

"Even if only 30 seats are at stake, I believe BN's actions will have a ripple effect on other political parties." On Saturday, Umno President Zahid Hamidi stated that it would be better to hold PRU16 earlier than waiting for the automatic dissolution of Parliament at the end of 2027. However, BN is prepared to support Anwar as Prime Minister until the end of the five-year term, should the Prime Minister choose to serve the full term.

With the influence of the PRN Johor and Negeri Sembilan results, the relationship between BN and PH is expected to shift. Earlier, Zahid repeatedly declared that BN would support Anwar as Prime Minister until PRU16. It is unlikely that BN will withdraw its support for Anwar, despite his reluctance to yield to pressure to hold PRU16 earlier.

Chin believes that Umno does not need to dismantle the government right now, as it can wait until PRU16, where the PN coalition is likely to sweep most, if not all, of the Malay-majority seats. "Umno has all the incentives to desire PRU16 earlier due to its excessive confidence, especially with PAS's backing."