Unity at Last: Is Libya's Damaging Power Struggle at an End?

After years of civil war and political division, the UN-backed mediation has led to the two opposing governments in Libya agreeing to hold parliamentary and presidential elections within the next two years. The agreement, according to the UN's Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), marks a significant step towards advancing the country towards national elections and ending the transitional period. The electoral commission will be restructured, and various points about the legal framework for the elections have been resolved.

However, the success of this agreement remains uncertain. Despite the apparent unity, the country has been divided for over a decade. The western government, based in Tripoli, is led by Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, while Khalifa Haftar, a former warlord turned politician, governs in the east from Tobruk. Both leaders are supported by local militias and foreign powers.

Experts believe the apparent unity is a positive development, as years of civil war and political division have only fueled Libyans' desire to end the fighting permanently. Many political actors now believe that Libya can only develop further if both sides are incorporated into one administration. The UN is not only trying to arrange a date for elections but also strengthen the electoral commission and work on electoral laws to create a secure and trusted electoral process.

However, past agreements in Libya have failed to materialize, and the success of this agreement will depend on how binding any decisions are. Unlike the UN plan, the US is attempting to bring the disparate leadership together by working with the country's elites. While the American approach aims to create a deal between the country's elites, there are concerns about how this deal would fit into free and fair elections.

The elite-led deal could institutionalize the existing rivalry between Libya's ruling elites, leading to corruption and patronage systems continuing.

The division into east and west will be hard to overcome, as much of the Libyan population lives in the western areas, especially in the Tripoli region. If elections are held, the eastern half of the country may lose power, which could further exacerbate tensions. External actors, such as Russia's presence in the east and Turkey's support for the government in the west, add complexity to the situation.

Ultimately, the new agreement must do more than simply establish a path toward elections. It must create a framework in which rivalries accept the results of an election and public institutions function properly. With Libya's rich raw materials and energy reserves, it remains to be seen if the new government can curtail the power of those currently benefiting from the country's resources, as the change in leadership may not be enough to address the root of the country's problems.