UN charts course to manage global warming-limit breach
UNEP’s detailed 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway seeks to hold the peak as low as possible and then bring temperatures back down below the 1.5°C limit; report terms it ‘best remaining option’
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released a detailed plan for managing global warming even if the 1.5°C limit is temporarily exceeded. This "overshoot, peak, and decline" pathway acknowledges that the world will likely surpass the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping average global temperatures 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report warns that such an overshoot would have irreversible consequences, including faster sea-level rise, coral reef collapse, and declining food production. To mitigate these impacts, the report recommends scaling up nature-based removals like large-scale reforestation. It also emphasizes the need for rapid emissions cuts and the use of carbon dioxide removal alongside emission reductions.
The UNEP report underscores the importance of addressing methane emissions, as they contribute significantly to short-term warming. The plan was discussed at the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil, where countries agreed to limit the size and duration of any overshoot and enhance adaptation efforts.
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