Global temperature rises to exceed 1.5 Celsius 'within a few years', UN says

The United Nations Environment Programme warned on Wednesday that global temperatures are on track to surpass the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold within a few years. While restoring temperatures below 1.5C remains possible, experts say it is highly uncertain and would demand swift cuts in emissions along with methods to remove existing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The report, released by UNEP, acknowledged that bringing temperatures back under 1.5C is possible but highly uncertain, necessitating rapid emission reductions and interventions to pull CO2 from the air. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments pledged to keep temperature rises within 1.5C to mitigate the effects of extreme weather.

However, the report suggests that overshoot is now highly likely, and countries must now focus on limiting how long temperatures stay above 1.5C, as every year of delay and every fraction of a degree above 1.5C heightens risks and makes recovery more challenging. The most optimistic scenario envisions temperatures peaking at 1.8C above pre-industrial levels if all existing national commitments are fulfilled, though the report suggests the reality may be much worse.

Current policies project global warming will average around 2.6C by 2100, according to the report. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures, such as planting new forests, are deemed crucial for controlling rising temperatures, yet they are seen as insufficient replacements for drastic cuts in current emission levels.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recognized the inevitability of overshooting 1.5C in a previous year, but this marks the first time a UN agency has tackled the issue directly through a dedicated report. This stark warning has alarmed climate advocates who have rallied around the 1.5C target since its adoption as a more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement a decade ago.

Climate campaigners, including Greenpeace International's Deputy Programme Director Jasper Inventor, expressed deep concern over the report's language but emphasized that overshoot does not warrant giving up on the 1.5C goal. Bill Hare, a climate scientist and CEO of the policy institute Climate Analytics, criticized the report, alleging it risks becoming a call for apathy rather than action.

Small island nations, particularly vulnerable to rising seas, have been vocal defenders of the 1.5C target, urging wealthier countries to uphold this milestone despite growing challenges. The world has already warmed by approximately 1.4C since 1850-1900, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels, with the last three years registering as the hottest on record.