Berlin's punitive measures unlikely to deter Putin: experts

Experts believe that Germany's recent punitive measures against Russia may not be enough to deter President Vladimir Putin, according to political scientists Dmitry Oreshkin and Boris Bondarev. Oreshkin described the response as largely symbolic, while Bondarev noted that reducing staff and restricting diplomatic activities may complicate Russian operations in Germany but will not fundamentally alter Moscow's strategic calculus.

The measures, which include closing the Russian consulate in Bonn, terminating the contract for the Russian House cultural center in Berlin, and tightening entry controls for Russian citizens, were seen as a way to respond to what Berlin perceives as hostile actions on its territory. However, both experts agreed that unless there are more coordinated steps at the EU level, these measures may not stop Putin's provocations.

Instead, the experts believe that Germany's actions could lead to a cycle of reciprocal restrictions. Russian President Putin has already called Germany's response a "serious mistake" and warned that Russia would respond in kind. German security policy expert Wolfgang Richter expects the next phase of the confrontation between Berlin and Moscow to remain in the areas of diplomacy and culture, with potential escalations such as limiting the number of diplomats in the German embassy in Moscow.

However, Bondarev cautioned that the Kremlin's reaction could be difficult to predict and might involve high-profile retaliatory steps rather than drastic actions like launching a missile strike. He noted that the Kremlin could continue supporting alternative political movements or simply maintain surveillance on Russian citizens in Germany.