미국 부채 5.4경원…국채 폭락 막고자 ‘채권 강매’ 거론

The US national debt has reached $5.4 trillion, spurring discussions about "bond bull raids" to prevent further market crashes. Japan's long-standing low interest rates have been broken as 10-year government bonds surpassed 3%, signaling a new structural shift in the global financial landscape. Factors contributing to this trend include the U.S.-Iran war, rising inflation concerns, and increased demand for AI investments.

The Federal Reserve, other central banks, and markets worldwide are closely monitoring the US 10-year bond rate, which has recently broken 5%. The U.S. Treasury intervened in August by selling Japanese yen to defend the value of its bonds. This move aimed to prevent a further drop in bond prices, as Japanese selling of U.S. bonds could lead to cheaper U.S. debt.

Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin proposed increasing the Treasury's "General Account" (TGA) from $2 billion to $4 billion to stabilize the financial market. However, this intervention has had a temporary effect, with 30-year bond rates reverting to a 5.3% high not seen since 2007. Bond expert Ed Yardeni predicts that if the 10-year bond rate reaches 5%, Mnuchin may issue more short-term bonds to prevent a "tumult of buy panic."

While the U.S. government's intervention may help, its effectiveness remains uncertain. Fed officials and central banks worldwide are likely to raise interest rates in the latter half of the year, alongside growing demand for AI investments by big tech companies. Mnuchin clarified that bond price stabilization is "one type of intervention," with the ultimate intervention being military force if necessary.

The prospect of continued bond market turmoil has led to speculation of "extreme fiscal austerity," where the government forcibly transfers ownership of bonds. The Trump administration has proposed a "Marler agreement," which would involve forcibly exchanging U.S. short-term bonds for long-term bonds or permanent securities, with participating countries bearing the burden of lower interest rates.

This arrangement would be contingent on receiving military protection from the U.S. Ahead of the midterm elections in November, the Trump administration and major governments face pressure over inflation, rising interest rates, and ballooning national debt. A prolonged bond market crash could trigger a cascade of sell-offs across currencies, stocks, and other assets.