Russia meets record gasoline imports, diesel ban

In July, Russia extended its full export ban – on both producers and non-producers – through the end of January 2027 for gasoline and until September 1, 2026 for diesel. During a particularly hot summer, marked by drone attacks from Ukraine, seaborne imports of gasoline to Russia spiked to record highs in August. This month saw imports of around 125,000 barrels, which projected to a total of 470,000 for the entire month.

This is nearly identical to the amount imported by Nigeria in August, a country traditionally a net importer of seaborne gasoline. This article delves deeper into the profile of Russia’s recent gasoline imports and examines whether persistent drone-strike pressures will lead to an extension of the diesel ban beyond September 1.

In August, around 55% or 260,000 barrels of imported gasoline entered Russia on sanctioned tonnage. All India-origin gasoline cargoes Russia received in August were carried on sanctioned fleets and featured dark ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Mediterranean. The latest India-to-Russia gasoline STS transfer, involving sanctioned LR1 tankers CYCLONE (9314167) and AMARANT (9409467) in the Gulf of Suez STS area, is expected to arrive in Russia in early September.

The majority of these imports – approximately 40% – were conducted via STS transfers, with many being dark, meaning AIS signals were switched off. In contrast, tankers carrying gasoline to Russia from the Mediterranean primarily employed direct voyages.

In August, diesel/gasoil exports from Russia remained flat month-over-month at 150,000 barrels (days 1-25), a decrease of 610,000 barrels year-over-year and 81% below the five-year seasonal average levels, due to the ongoing export ban. Meanwhile, Ukraine persistently carries out drone strikes on Russian refineries – 32 attacks combined across July and August, roughly one every other day.

One recent attack on Perm 260kbd refinery left only 28% of its CDU capacity operational. Additionally, port facilities continue to experience constraints, with Black Sea ports being the most affected. Russia accounted for 44% or 380,000 barrels of its diesel/gasoil exports from the Black Sea last year. Following the May attack, no diesel cargo has been exported from Tuapse, Russia’s third-largest diesel export port handling 90,000 barrels, which is 10% of its total exports.

Given the refinery damage, it appears that Russian diesel exports are unlikely to rebound toward seasonal averages even if the export ban is partially lifted in September. The end of the peak summer demand season may provide some relief, allowing for increased export volumes; however, the ongoing harvest season may also impact the availability of diesel for export, even if the ban is lifted in September.

On the gasoline side, this suggests that Russia will likely continue importing some volumes in the near future, given its historically lower gasoline vs. diesel production yields.