Middle East refining under pressure: damage, export disruption, and a two-speed recovery

Middle Eastern refineries are operating at significantly lower levels than pre-war, producing around 7.3 million barrels per day (mbd) compared to 9.9 mbd in February 2026. This decrease stems from both physical damage to refineries and limited product evacuation through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). A partial recovery is anticipated starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, but achieving pre-war throughput is unlikely before the second quarter of 2027.

The immediate recovery process is focused on logistics, while achieving normal capacity levels requires restoring capacity.

Recovery has been uneven across the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain suffering substantial physical damage and considerable run losses. The UAE and Iran are constrained more by product evacuation. Qatar's recovery is expected to be prolonged due to damage at Pearl GTL, while Oman's position outside Hormuz allows its output to remain near capacity.

The base case assumes that disruptions will persist, with transit constraints remaining in place until the end of 2026, after which a gradual reopening is expected. Currently, regional refinery runs align with the prolonged-conflict scenario. If the situation improves in Hormuz, a quick rebound could occur, with operational refineries increasing throughput and normalizing product evacuation.

However, damaged capacity will remain a significant limitation, delaying the return to pre-war throughput until Q2 2027. The Middle East has lost around 4 mbd of refined product supply since the conflict began. This loss is split, with 2.5 mbd resulting from reduced refinery output and the remaining 1.5 mbd due to disruptions in other supply streams, primarily LPG and NGL-derived naphtha.