Pressure is the main driver of the Iran war, but for how long?

Since 2023, Middle Eastern conflicts have been driven primarily by escalations and deterrence tactics. Recently, pressure has emerged as the main factor in this situation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, during a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister, implicitly recognized that diplomacy would remain open as long as the US acknowledged that "pressure doesn't work".

This statement reflects the US government's significant coercive initiative with Operation Economic Outcast, which is particularly aimed at China's oil refineries that depend on Iran's oil supply. The effects of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy's shipping embargo have resulted in a significant decline in oil exports from the Arabian Gulf.

Kpler's data estimates the crossings have dropped from an average of 88 per day before the war to just 16 today, leading to a decrease in global oil and product exports. Araghchi's comments could be directed at hardliners within Iran as much as they are aimed at the US. The ongoing stalemate is also affecting Iran's economy, with petrol prices at $4 a gallon causing political impact in Washington, but also causing devastation for Iran's own petrol stations and trade.

The situation is further exacerbated by the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil export tankers and the creation of a web of influence across the Horn of Africa. The situation in the Red Sea also holds potential for a chokehold that would severely impact the global economy.