Pressure is the main driver of the Iran war, but for how long?

Since 2023, conflicts in the Middle East have been driven primarily by pressure and deterrence. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi implicitly acknowledged this during a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, stating that the door to diplomacy remains open as long as the US government recognizes that "pressure doesn't work."

The US government took a significant coercive initiative with Operation Economic Outcast, targeting China's oil refineries that rely on Iran's oil supply. This has led to a significant drop in oil exports from the Arabian Gulf, from 20 million barrels per day to about 3.6 million barrels per day. The impact of these pressure tactics is not limited to Iran, as they have also affected other products such as helium, fertilizers, and aluminium.

The long-standing stalemate has also had other consequences, including a reduction in the Strait of Hormuz's importance as an export corridor for Gulf countries. This shift is expected to make Iran's leverage in controlling Hormuz less valuable in the coming years. The situation in the Red Sea is also becoming increasingly volatile, with the Houthis stepping up attacks on oil export tankers and using Hezbollah-style strategies to create a web of influence across the Horn of Africa.

This development poses a significant threat to global trade, potentially leading to a chokehold on the Red Sea. While the US has not yet taken counter-pressure measures in the Red Sea, it is important to note that the Europeans are still committed to maintaining the Aspides coalition of warships to ensure the safety of cargo trade.

The pressure phase may be real, but its impact on the chokepoints is uneven and irregular, making deterrence the only viable alternative to a standstill or a deal.