Indian Rupee hits fresh two-month high against US Dollar

The Indian Rupee (INR) has reached a fresh two-month high against the US Dollar, with the USD/INR pair dropping to near 94.88, the lowest level seen in two months. This sharp gain can be attributed to likely Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention, stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and a narrowed Fiscal Deficit.

RBI intervention through spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets has been persistent to support the Indian currency, but the sustainability of the INR's strength is uncertain due to the record-high net short forward positions of $137 billion in July. India's Q2 GDP growth was in line with the prior growth rate of 7.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), driven by upbeat domestic consumption, government spending, investments, and healthy export performance.

Analysts at HDFC Bank also noted that input cost pressures due to the West Asia conflict were offset by higher volume growth in sectors like manufacturing and electricity, gas. The services sector remained the standout, with financial, real estate, and professional services growing by a high of 12% in the quarter. Meanwhile, India's Q2 fiscal deficit stood at Rs.

4.55 trillion ($47.81 billion), or 26.8% of the target for the financial year 2026-27. In the United States, investors await the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will influence Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

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