Indian Rupee: Growth surprise supports range view against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank strategists argue that stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 7.8% yoy reinforces India’s relative growth advantage and reduces expectations of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) easing.
Commerzbank strategists point to India's stronger-than-expected 7.8% Q2 2026 GDP growth as a sign of the country's relative growth advantage over the US Dollar. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) growth forecast for FY2026-27 could see an upward revision, given the impressive performance in the first quarter of the fiscal year, which saw an expansion of 8.6% (up from the initially reported 7.8%).
However, the strategists caution about potential risks from oil, food prices, and external demand. Despite the strong economic growth, the RBI's CPI inflation projection for FY2026-27 remains at 5.0%, suggesting that monetary policy may remain cautious for the time being.
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