Trump’s Korean catastrophe

Former US President Donald Trump has shown renewed interest in meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. However, Kim's sister, a key adviser, has expressed skepticism about such a meeting. Two key questions emerge: what does Trump anticipate from potential talks with Kim, and how does he plan to achieve his objectives?

During his first term, Trump aimed to persuade Kim to disarm North Korea of its nuclear weapons, a goal he ultimately failed to achieve. Since then, North Korea's nuclear arsenal has expanded significantly, with 57 warheads and increasingly accurate missiles capable of reaching targets across the region and the world.

Kim likely views his nuclear arsenal as crucial to his security, as demonstrated by his reaction to US attacks on Iran, Iraq, and Libya. Russia's invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, following Ukraine's nuclear disarmament, also suggests that Kim believes his regime's survival hinges on its nuclear capabilities. Additionally, Kim understands that North Korea's international standing and relevance depend heavily on its nuclear arsenal.

Trump's confidence in diplomacy is bolstered by his belief in the power of personal relationships and economic development. However, history suggests that these factors may not be as influential as he believes. Furthermore, Kim's primary concern is maintaining power and ensuring the rule of his successor, rather than the well-being of North Korean citizens.

Instead of pursuing disarmament, an arms control agreement limiting the quantity and quality of North Korea's nuclear and missile forces could be a more viable option. This approach, however, carries risks, as it may be perceived as legitimising North Korea's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its pursuit of a weapons program.

South Korea, a crucial US ally, is also affected by Trump's approach. The Korean Peninsula was the site of the first major conflict of the Cold War, resulting in the deaths of over 36,000 Americans. Today, South Korea stands as a prosperous democracy and a global economic powerhouse. However, Trump's approach to the relationship, which includes imposing tariffs, withdrawing missile defenses, and reducing US-South Korea military exercises, risks undermining the US's security guarantees and destabilising the peninsula.

Ultimately, Trump's diplomatic efforts appear unlikely to succeed in persuading Kim to relinquish his nuclear arsenal. This could lead to a North Korea with nuclear weapons and potentially even a second nuclear-armed power on the Korean Peninsula, increasing the likelihood of war after three-quarters of a century. The conditions that fostered nuclear stability during the Cold War are now difficult to replicate, raising concerns about the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945.