Trump’s Korean catastrophe

Donald Trump has once again shown interest in meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but Kim's sister, one of his key advisers, has dismissed the prospect. The questions that arise are: What could these talks achieve, and how will Trump achieve his objectives? Trump aimed to bring about North Korea's nuclear disarmament during his first term, but North Korea has since increased its nuclear stockpile to 57, with missiles capable of reaching targets across the region and beyond.

Given Kim's belief in the necessity of a credible nuclear deterrent and his concern over US actions against nations without nuclear weapons, it seems unlikely that disarmament will be a realistic goal. Exploring arms control measures may be a more viable option, but it comes with risks, as it would be seen as validating North Korea's decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

South Korea, a crucial US ally, has seen rapid transformation but may face challenges if US diplomatic efforts prioritize North Korea over South Korea. Trump's approach may be influenced by his desire to achieve a foreign-policy success to distract from failures elsewhere, or by his frustration over South Korea's non-cooperation in a conflict they oppose.

Trump's unilateral diplomacy and unannounced approach could undermine US security guarantees, potentially leading to a situation with two nuclear-armed Koreas. This could increase the risk of war on the Korean peninsula after almost 75 years of stability. The lessons of the Cold War suggest that replicating the conditions that led to nuclear stability may be extremely challenging, and the prospect of nuclear warfare after 1945 remains a significant concern.