10M expansion state adults risk losing Medicaid coverage over inconsistent work hours
About 20% of adults living in Medicaid expansion states will have their eligibility threatened because their work hours may be insufficient or inconsistent under incoming national work requirements, a new study suggests.
A new study reveals that 10 million people may lose Medicaid coverage due to work hour inconsistencies, as incoming national work requirements take effect Jan. 1. Researchers from Boston University estimate that 20% of Medicaid-eligible adults in expansion states could be at risk for noncompliance. The study, published in JAMA Health Forum, analyzed data from 2023 to 2025 Current Population Survey, focusing on adults aged 18 to 65.
Around two-thirds of eligible recipients were in the labor force, with most working more than 35 hours per week. However, many face challenges like low-wage jobs, inconsistent schedules, transportation issues, and childcare barriers. These factors contribute to 19.8% of eligible individuals in expansion states being at risk for failing to meet the 80-hour per month threshold.
Study lead Paul Shafer emphasizes that these new requirements will be particularly difficult for those with less education, part-time jobs, or gig work, as well as individuals with substantial health concerns that may not meet documentable disability criteria. The study also highlights that certain groups are at higher risk, including women, unmarried individuals, those with lower education levels, and white enrollees.
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